2010 May 26 - Wed

Germany / Russia Working Together

I wanted to record this little snippet for something to check back on during some point in the future.

One writer is indicating that Germany is the real economic power in the European Union. Should the European Union break apart or evolve/devolve into something else, Germany can't go it alone. I have to take that assertion with a certain grain of salt, but perhaps the next idea fits in.

It is said that Germany's strength is it's manufacturing and export ability. Germany also has a decreasing population. A logical partner might be France, but they are typically highly competitive with each other, rather than cooperative with each other.

On the other hand, Russia has a large population with nothing much to do. Rather than being an exporter of raw materials, Germany could partner with Russia for manufacturing. Rather than increasing immigration towards Germany, which is something Germany does not want, they would send manufacturing to Russia.

In summary, it would be of interest to see how the European Union reorganizes around a possible Germany - Russion alliance.

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2010 Apr 23 - Fri

World Events and the Iceland Volcano

Byron King at Whiskey and Gunpowder wrote about how natural relate to human events through history. Any history buffs able to confirm the following?

We need to keep an eye on Iceland and its grumpy volcanoes. The historic record is filled with Icelandic volcano blasts that wrecked European civilization. It goes back at least to the days of the Roman Empire. There's evidence that an Icelandic eruption in A.D. 405 led to a harsh winter the next year, in which the Rhine River froze. This allowed the barbarians cross in numbers sufficient to defeat the Roman Legions.

In A.D. 934, there was a massive lava flow from Iceland's Eldgja fissure system. It unleashed the largest basalt flood in recorded history. An ash cloud blanketed Northern Europe and weakened many political structures. This eruption helped keep the Dark Ages dark, and in particular harmed the English political system. It's no coincidence that William, Duke of Normandy, conquered England a century or so later, in 1066.

Then there was the Laki eruption in 1783, with another immense outpouring of lava in Ice land. This eruption emitted large volumes of poisonous gas, including fluoride and sulfur dioxide chemicals that poisoned half of Iceland's livestock. The gas cloud blew over Scandinavia as well, causing many deaths and hardships that included a long famine.

There were many deaths further south in Western Europe, as well, in 1783. Then came several years of extreme weather. Among other problems was a shortfall in farm output. This led to a drop in tax receipts for governments across the continent. In France, King Louis XVI eventually had to summon the Estates General to ask for new taxes. Instead, he wound up with the French Revolution.

The San Francisco earthquake of 1906, for example, caused many banks and insurance companies in the U.S. and Britain to fail. This led to the Panic of 1907. The Panic of 1907 led directly to the creation of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1913.

He goes on to provide some modern day statistics regarding the volcano:

According to Eurocontrol, which operates the airspace in Europe, about 20,000 flights per day are canceled. By my back-of-the envelope calculation, that translates into about 1.5 million barrels of jet fuel per day that's not being burned to power airliners. That's just shy of 2% of total daily world oil demand. So with this fast hit to demand, it's no wonder that the price of oil has dropped about $4 per barrel in the past week.

Meanwhile world trade is indeed suffering. Perishable items, from flowers to exotic fish and fruits, are rotting on the loading docks. High-value items like computer chips and diamonds are sitting in secure warehouses. Much other airfreight is just stacking up on the pallets. FedEx and UPS together carry about $1.3 billion of goods per day between North America and Europe. Right now, it's almost all shut down.

The ripples are global. For example, Chinese auto assembly lines are slowing down due to lack of electronic components from Germany. There are reports of mass layoffs in nations as far apart as Kenya and Colombia, due to the inability to export goods via airfreight to Europe. Then consider all the personal and business disruptions and expenses from casual and business travelers unable to fly.

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