2008 Nov 23 - Sun

Seasonalality Timing System

In Mark Hulbert's November 17, 2008 article called The long-term reasserts itself, he mentions the Seasonality Timing System (STS) designed by Norman Fosback of the Fosback's Fund Forecaster Newsletter.

The STS is designed around the fact that "the stock market has a bullish bias around the trading sessions immediately prior to each exchange holiday as well as those at the turns of each month." He indicates that "STS followers will not get back into the stock market until the close next Monday, so as to be fully invested for the sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday, the two trading sessions prior to the market's Thanksgiving holiday."

According to those remarks, trading for this upcoming week should give us a rebound.

The picture turns less rosy with Paul Farrell's November 19, 2008 article 30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011. Basically he says more spending with little or no increased income is a recipe for further disasters.

Peter Brimelow in a November 20, 2008 article called Bears' glass half empty or half full?, writes about Dow Theorist Richard Russell indicates that the primary bear market has been reconfirmed, and things are headed lower, perhaps to around the 7286 (the 2002 Dow Low) and 7470 (half the bull market peak), which we touched Thursday and Friday, but were saved by the news of Timothy Geithner, now president of New York Federal Reserve, would be Obamas's Treasury Secretary.

Corey Rosenbloom has confirmation of the Interesting Fibonacci Development. We have a level of support at about 7500, and a trading range up to a level of Fibonacci and psychological resistance of about 10,000.

But then more bad news could be around the corner. Lots of interesting Economic news coming this week: Existing Home Sales on Monday, Tuesday with GDP and Consumer Confidence, and then the day before the US Thanksgiving we have Durable Goods, Personal Income, Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment, and New Home Sales.

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