2007 Feb 18 - Sun

Darvas Selections for 2007/02/20

Here are the selections for Tuesday. Monday is President's Day holiday. These lists have the Darvas stop calculated in the second column.

Start: 2007-01-16 High: 2007-02-09 EOD: 2007-02-16 Symbol Stop AEP 45.41 AGU 38.32 AINV 23.79 AIV 63.41 AL 54.53 AMX 45.76 AOC 38.95 ARBA 9.79 ARDI 7.44 ATHR 25.37 AUY 13.61 AVP 38.64 BG 79.85 BID 38.31 CBS 31.91 CECO 28.13 CGV 41.39 CHINA 10.63 COH 47.03 CPWR 9.32 CRUS 8.16 DD 51.00 EDS 27.62 EGO 6.20 EXC 62.72 EXPE 21.65 FMCN 85.84 GM 35.99 GT 25.33 HAS 29.47 HES 53.00 HTZ 21.65 IRF 42.99 LI 32.50 MA 113.08 MCHP 36.09 MET 64.75 MIR 35.65 MRVC 4.19 NKE 105.58 NUAN 14.44 NVT 35.17 RHT 24.47 RSH 23.10 RTH 104.95 SHLD 180.10 SNE 50.39 SONS 7.80 TIF 40.50 TRA 16.80 TSN 18.67 USU 14.78 VRSN 25.49 WYN 34.40 XL 72.23 XLY 39.72 XRX 17.25

Start: 2007-01-16 High: 2007-02-12 EOD: 2007-02-16 Symbol Stop AL 54.53 BGC 50.81 CECO 28.13 EDS 27.62 FMCN 85.84 GSK 56.11 HD 41.18 JBHT 26.54 KG 18.66 LI 32.50 NKE 105.58 NOC 73.57 NVL 40.00 ONXX 18.41 RHT 24.47 TRA 16.80

Start: 2007-01-16 High: 2007-02-13 EOD: 2007-02-16 Symbol Stop ADP 49.77 AGU 38.32 AL 54.53 ALGN 17.01 ALVR 7.77 ANAD 12.49 APPB 26.15 BGC 50.81 CAR 26.76 CE 28.71 CECO 28.13 CEN 32.98 CERN 50.95 COH 47.03 CRM 47.82 CSX 39.69 DOW 42.68 EDS 27.62 GCI 62.14 GM 35.99 GSK 56.11 HNT 54.01 IAR 34.89 IP 36.93 ITW 52.21 JBHT 26.54 MET 64.75 MOS 22.57 NKE 105.58 NOC 73.57 NOK 23.02 NOV 68.85 NT 31.08 ONXX 18.41 OSI 39.96 PCLN 51.53 PNC 75.15 PX 64.20 RHT 24.47 SNE 50.39 TEVA 37.76 TIF 40.50 TRA 16.80 TRN 42.12 TSG 32.52 TSN 18.67 WB 57.34 WYN 34.40 XRX 17.25

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Darvas Results at EOD 2007/02/16

In comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Index opened down slightly at 12764, had a lower high of 12769, had a higher low of 12744, and closed up for the day slightly at 12767.

Here is an equity curve for trading one 100 share block of each of the selected instruments from opening bell to three minutes before the ending bell:

.

The low points on the curve correspond to the initial low points of the Dow. This resulted in about a $1000 draw down. From there, the Dow traded sideways, but the Darvas selections trended upwards to end, after commissions, at about $1600 profit, with the day's hypothetical trades yielding 0.32% return.

In this case, I've used the Darvas selector as something to suggest instruments for day trading: in at the beginning of the day, out at the end. Even though a stop is shown for each instrument, no stops were placed. For this day, I found that stops reduced the return.

For the result chart below, here is a description of cell colors:

• If Low is green, then it stayed above the stop level.
• If Close is green, the symbol closed up for the day.
• If Stop is green, then stop was below close of the day.

The '#' column represents the number of occurances in the previous day's selections.

Symbol	#	Open	High	Low	Close	Stop	O->H	O->C
AEP	1	45.58	45.92	45.37	45.89	45.41	0.34	0.31
AFFX	1	28.14	28.19	27.49	27.93	27.83	0.05	-0.21
AGU	1	38.73	38.81	38.23	38.77	38.32	0.08	0.04
AINV	1	23.41	23.88	23.41	23.79	23.30	0.47	0.38
AIV	1	60.70	61.72	60.34	61.60	63.41	1.02	0.90
AKAM	1	56.16	56.39	55.55	55.99	55.71	0.23	-0.17
AL	2	55.06	55.30	54.42	54.76	54.53	0.24	-0.30
ALVR	1	8.20	8.33	7.94	8.32	7.77	0.13	0.12
AMX	2	48.25	48.53	47.82	48.23	45.76	0.28	-0.02
ANAD	1	12.19	12.99	12.15	12.91	11.40	0.80	0.72
ANF	1	82.35	82.74	81.63	82.67	82.81	0.39	0.32
AOC	1	38.72	39.20	38.72	39.01	36.91	0.48	0.29
ARBA	1	11.08	11.08	10.00	10.02	9.79	0.00	-1.06
ARDI	1	7.47	7.49	7.45	7.49	7.44	0.02	0.02
ARO	1	38.14	38.14	37.56	37.71	37.06	0.00	-0.43
ATHR	1	26.00	26.00	25.06	25.73	25.37	0.00	-0.27
AVP	1	39.83	39.83	38.94	38.99	38.64	0.00	-0.84
BEN	1	125.70	126.61	124.87	126.02	121.77	0.91	0.32
BG	2	80.50	80.85	80.17	80.56	79.85	0.35	0.06
BGC	2	51.67	52.00	51.37	51.97	50.81	0.33	0.30
BID	1	38.58	38.95	38.44	38.90	38.31	0.37	0.32
BIG	1	26.60	26.60	26.17	26.41	26.34	0.00	-0.19
CBS	2	31.75	31.93	31.61	31.81	31.91	0.18	0.06
CECO	2	27.10	29.00	26.33	28.88	28.13	1.90	1.78
CGV	1	41.45	41.68	41.31	41.67	41.39	0.23	0.22
CHINA	2	10.41	10.65	10.39	10.54	10.63	0.24	0.13
COH	2	49.29	50.00	49.01	49.98	47.03	0.71	0.69
CPWR	1	9.26	9.51	9.26	9.47	8.88	0.25	0.21
CRUS	1	8.17	8.17	8.00	8.06	8.16	0.00	-0.11
CVG	1	26.53	26.81	26.48	26.69	26.50	0.28	0.16
DD	1	51.98	52.48	51.82	52.47	51.00	0.50	0.49
DIS	1	34.68	34.91	34.41	34.89	34.44	0.23	0.21
DLTR	1	34.09	34.19	33.66	34.17	33.89	0.10	0.08
EDS	3	28.91	29.26	28.83	29.17	27.62	0.35	0.26
EGO	1	6.20	6.50	6.20	6.50	6.20	0.30	0.30
EMC	1	14.69	14.69	14.46	14.60	14.38	0.00	-0.09
EXC	2	62.62	63.32	62.18	63.19	62.72	0.70	0.57
EXPE	2	22.14	22.17	21.76	21.83	21.65	0.03	-0.31
FMCN	3	81.80	82.85	80.98	82.00	85.84	1.05	0.20
GGP	1	64.76	65.91	64.26	65.65	65.07	1.15	0.89
GM	1	36.63	36.83	35.63	36.34	35.99	0.20	-0.29
GSK	1	58.09	58.15	57.50	57.78	56.11	0.06	-0.31
GT	2	25.12	25.36	24.51	25.18	25.33	0.24	0.06
HAS	2	29.30	29.63	29.11	29.60	28.94	0.33	0.30
HCP	1	39.50	39.53	39.10	39.42	39.60	0.03	-0.08
HD	1	41.50	41.66	41.20	41.44	40.98	0.16	-0.06
HTZ	2	21.42	22.05	21.37	21.90	19.95	0.63	0.48
IACI	1	39.94	39.99	39.46	39.83	39.48	0.05	-0.11
IBN	1	44.12	44.35	44.05	44.35	45.89	0.23	0.23
IFX	1	16.05	16.29	16.00	16.26	15.68	0.24	0.21
IP	1	37.53	37.81	37.10	37.78	36.93	0.28	0.25
IRF	1	42.75	43.10	42.45	42.99	42.99	0.35	0.24
ITW	1	52.87	53.14	52.36	52.55	52.21	0.27	-0.32
JBHT	1	26.96	26.96	26.57	26.72	26.54	0.00	-0.24
KG	1	18.70	18.93	18.51	18.69	18.66	0.23	-0.01
LI	2	34.48	34.50	34.35	34.41	32.50	0.02	-0.07
MA	2	108.01	109.12	106.05	108.32	113.08	1.11	0.31
MCHP	1	36.21	36.21	35.81	36.02	36.09	0.00	-0.19
MCO	1	71.50	72.75	71.43	72.68	74.82	1.25	1.18
MET	2	64.65	65.12	64.60	64.85	64.75	0.47	0.20
MIR	1	35.64	35.98	35.54	35.93	35.65	0.34	0.29
MNST	1	54.08	54.76	54.00	54.67	51.39	0.68	0.59
MRVC	2	4.18	4.40	4.13	4.24	4.19	0.22	0.06
NKE	3	106.50	107.51	105.68	106.30	100.25	1.01	-0.20
NOC	2	74.99	75.05	74.76	75.01	73.57	0.06	0.02
NT	1	31.05	31.63	30.71	31.63	29.32	0.58	0.58
NUAN	2	14.30	14.47	14.12	14.46	12.72	0.17	0.16
NVL	1	44.29	44.34	44.06	44.29	40.00	0.05	0.00
NVT	1	34.44	34.95	34.16	34.84	35.17	0.51	0.40
ONXX	1	26.16	27.85	25.65	27.75	17.21	1.69	1.59
PRU	1	91.40	92.70	91.28	92.51	91.26	1.30	1.11
RHT	3	23.67	24.00	23.55	24.00	24.47	0.33	0.33
RMBS	1	22.84	23.08	22.29	22.64	21.49	0.24	-0.20
RSH	2	23.08	23.24	22.86	22.97	23.10	0.16	-0.11
RTH	2	105.17	105.31	104.66	105.14	104.95	0.14	-0.03
SHLD	1	186.00	187.50	185.23	187.26	180.10	1.50	1.26
SINA	1	35.61	35.82	35.03	35.11	34.35	0.21	-0.50
SNE	1	52.06	52.73	52.06	52.56	50.39	0.67	0.50
SONS	2	7.51	7.60	7.41	7.57	7.80	0.09	0.06
TGT	1	62.40	62.95	62.15	62.91	61.13	0.55	0.51
TIF	2	42.50	42.72	42.11	42.61	40.50	0.22	0.11
TRA	2	17.25	17.47	16.99	17.20	16.80	0.22	-0.05
TROW	1	49.53	49.88	49.20	49.60	48.94	0.35	0.07
TSN	1	18.90	19.00	18.79	18.94	18.67	0.10	0.04
UBS	1	62.48	63.06	62.41	63.03	63.33	0.58	0.55
UIS	1	9.21	9.30	9.18	9.28	9.22	0.09	0.07
URI	1	29.58	29.63	28.97	29.30	28.88	0.05	-0.28
USU	1	14.21	14.21	13.84	14.08	14.78	0.00	-0.13
VNO	1	133.30	134.00	131.90	133.99	132.85	0.70	0.69
VRSN	1	26.15	26.52	26.08	26.12	24.71	0.37	-0.03
WLP	1	81.95	82.94	81.75	82.25	79.00	0.99	0.30
WYN	2	34.48	34.80	34.44	34.67	32.65	0.32	0.19
XEL	1	24.15	24.35	24.04	24.26	24.14	0.20	0.11
XL	2	72.67	73.85	72.66	73.85	72.23	1.18	1.18
XLY	1	39.74	39.90	39.67	39.90	39.72	0.16	0.16
XRX	1	17.97	18.17	17.91	18.09	17.25	0.20	0.12
YHOO	1	31.00	32.00	31.00	31.91	29.88	1.00	0.91
ZMH	1	84.51	85.01	83.90	84.92	85.00	0.50	0.41
98		3977.28					38.57	18.97

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2007/02/18 Market Notes

Upcoming on Wednesday are a couple of economic releases: the index of U.S. leading economic indicators, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index, the later of which will be released at 8:30 a.m. by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.

In looking at the daily candles for the Down JOnes Industrial Average over the last few months, it looks like trading for the upcoming week could be flat or in a downwards direction as traders do some profit taking.

The Darvas trades obviously work well on positive DOW days, and seem to keep somewhat above water on flat days. On down days, it looks like an effort will be needed to stay afloat. On down days, the goal would be to find a low point of the day, and then enter the trades there. I'm currently looking at the Arms Index to see if that will help at all.

So if my eyeballed pattern analysis is any good, Tuesday looks like it could be another relatively flat day or the start of downward temporary correction.

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