2007 Feb 14 - Wed

Trading Site of the Day -- One Option: Option Trading Blog

Pete Stolcers has a blog called OneOption in which he discussed the theory behind option trades as well as showing real trades.

In his February 13 article, he talks about spreads. He discusses when to get in, how to get in, what happens when you are close to an expiry date, and examines some considerations on how to get out. He also discusses how he finds a suitable candidate for a trade.

As part of the analysis, he also examines the overall market situation. By thinking about the general, followed by some fundamental analsysis, he then generates a 'feeling' as to where things might go.

So, by what I just mentioned in the last paragraph, he isn't just a technical analsyst. He does examine each symbol's fundamentals and latest news to help justify his feelings as to where a trading instrument might be heading.

Initial posts to his blog were few and far between. Perhaps he may maintain more frequent posts in the here and now. Anyway, there is useful information there for a practitioner to learn from.

[/Trading/SiteOfTheDay/D200702] permanent link

Darvas Selections for 2007/02/15

Here are the selections for Thursday. These lists have the Darvas stop calculated in the second column.

Start: 2007-01-14 High: 2007-02-08 EOD: 2007-02-14 Symbol Stop AFFX 27.83 AKAM 55.71 ALVR 7.77 AMX 45.76 ANAD 11.40 ANF 82.81 APCC 30.85 ARO 37.06 BEN 121.77 BG 79.85 BGC 48.38 BIG 26.34 CBS 31.91 CHINA 10.63 COH 47.03 CVG 26.50 DIS 34.44 DLTR 33.89 EDS 27.62 EMC 14.38 EXC 62.72 EXPE 21.65 FMCN 85.84 GGP 65.07 GT 25.33 HAS 28.94 HCP 39.60 HTZ 19.95 IACI 39.48 IBN 45.89 IFX 15.68 IP 36.93 ITW 52.21 MA 113.08 MCO 74.82 MET 64.75 MNST 51.39 MRVC 4.19 NKE 100.25 NOC 73.57 NT 29.32 NUAN 12.72 PRU 91.26 RHT 24.47 RMBS 21.49 SINA 34.35 SONS 7.80 TGT 61.13 TIF 40.50 TROW 48.94 UBS 63.33 UIS 9.22 URI 28.25 VNO 132.85 WLP 79.00 WYN 32.65 XEL 24.14 XL 71.56 YHOO 29.88 ZMH 85.00

Start: 2007-01-14 High: 2007-02-09 EOD: 2007-02-14 Symbol Stop AEP 45.41 AGU 37.05 AINV 23.30 AIV 63.41 AL 52.32 AMX 45.76 ARBA 9.79 ARDI 7.42 ATHR 24.80 AVP 38.64 BG 79.85 CBS 31.91 CECO 28.13 CGV 41.39 CHINA 10.63 COH 47.03 CPWR 8.88 CRUS 8.16 DD 51.00 EDS 27.62 EGO 5.80 EXC 62.72 EXPE 21.65 FMCN 85.84 GM 35.99 GT 25.33 HAS 28.94 HTZ 19.95 IRF 42.99 LI 32.50 MA 113.08 MCHP 36.09 MET 64.75 MIR 35.65 MRVC 4.19 NKE 100.25 NUAN 12.72 NVT 35.17 RHT 24.47 SHLD 180.10 SNE 50.39 SONS 7.80 TIF 40.50 TRA 15.82 TSN 18.67 USU 14.78 VRSN 24.71 WYN 32.65 XL 71.56 XLY 39.72 XRX 17.25

[/Trading/Darvas/D200702] permanent link

Darvas Results at EOD 2007/02/14

In comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Index opened down slightly at 12651, had a higher high of 12759, had a higher low (an all positive day) of 12651, and closed up further at 12741.

If Low is green, then it stayed above the stop level. If Close is green, the symbol closed up for the day.

Start: 2007-01-13
High: 2007-02-07
EOD: 2007-02-13

Symbol	Open	High	Low	Close	Stop	O->H	O->C
ABB	18.66	19.25	18.65	19.13	18.62	0.59	0.47
ACN	38.72	39.25	38.69	39.20	37.86	0.53	0.48
AET	42.60	43.80	42.60	43.64	42.99	1.20	1.04
AFL	47.95	48.02	47.64	47.90	48.71	0.07	-0.05
AMKR	11.41	11.98	11.32	11.76	11.40	0.57	0.35
AMP	61.18	63.07	61.16	62.56	59.35	1.89	1.38
AMT	39.54	40.03	39.50	39.60	39.30	0.49	0.06
AN	23.06	23.08	22.76	23.03	22.56	0.02	-0.03
ANAD	12.12	12.13	11.91	12.10	11.40	0.01	-0.02
ARO	38.21	38.51	37.81	38.40	37.06	0.30	0.19
ATHR	25.69	26.20	25.60	25.79	24.80	0.51	0.10
BEN	123.16	126.00	122.95	125.59	121.77	2.84	2.43
BIG	26.49	26.58	26.29	26.41	26.34	0.09	-0.08
BMC	32.15	32.67	32.02	32.44	35.41	0.52	0.29
CAR	27.00	27.16	26.90	27.05	26.76	0.16	0.05
CECO	29.38	29.49	29.29	29.46	28.13	0.11	0.08
CHINA	10.59	10.88	10.58	10.85	10.63	0.29	0.26
CHKP	24.77	25.03	24.63	24.92	24.43	0.26	0.15
CIT	59.22	60.44	59.03	59.82	58.63	1.22	0.60
COH	48.25	49.58	47.81	49.38	47.03	1.33	1.13
COL	68.45	69.22	68.40	69.22	66.18	0.77	0.77
COST	56.51	57.15	56.34	57.05	54.66	0.64	0.54
CRM	48.90	50.13	48.78	49.88	47.82	1.23	0.98
CROX	53.77	54.53	53.20	53.51	57.32	0.76	-0.26
CX	35.88	37.14	35.72	36.95	36.37	1.26	1.07
DD	51.40	51.89	51.33	51.79	51.00	0.49	0.39
DISH	42.14	42.50	41.93	42.04	41.53	0.36	-0.10
DTV	23.98	24.29	23.86	23.92	24.76	0.31	-0.06
EEM	115.30	117.88	113.85	117.65	116.50	2.58	2.35
EFA	75.66	76.40	75.63	76.32	74.51	0.74	0.66
EXPE	21.68	22.49	21.64	22.27	21.65	0.81	0.59
FHN	43.90	44.35	43.79	43.99	44.05	0.45	0.09
FISV	53.75	54.50	53.65	54.30	51.44	0.75	0.55
GGP	63.59	65.20	63.10	64.72	65.07	1.61	1.13
GIGM	12.20	12.55	12.16	12.39	11.95	0.35	0.19
GILD	70.94	71.74	70.51	71.72	71.92	0.80	0.78
GNW	36.43	36.77	36.31	36.63	36.61	0.34	0.20
GR	49.95	50.78	49.77	50.44	48.39	0.83	0.49
HAS	28.50	29.00	28.45	28.98	28.94	0.50	0.48
HCP	40.25	40.33	39.68	39.83	39.60	0.08	-0.42
HLT	36.61	37.17	36.54	36.82	37.31	0.56	0.21
HON	46.51	47.65	46.20	47.54	45.90	1.14	1.03
HTZ	20.40	21.32	20.28	21.22	19.95	0.92	0.82
IACI	39.90	40.15	39.63	39.85	39.48	0.25	-0.05
IBN	42.24	43.67	42.00	43.61	45.89	1.43	1.37
IFX	15.98	16.24	15.95	16.18	15.68	0.26	0.20
ITW	52.05	52.93	52.02	52.77	50.29	0.88	0.72
JCP	83.44	84.92	83.12	84.59	84.09	1.48	1.15
KEY	39.00	39.49	38.93	39.37	38.97	0.49	0.37
KLIC	9.63	10.00	9.63	9.95	9.09	0.37	0.32
LEH	83.30	84.36	82.77	83.65	84.13	1.06	0.35
LLL	86.17	87.73	86.05	87.62	83.25	1.56	1.45
MCO	71.10	72.18	71.07	71.68	74.82	1.08	0.58
MET	64.30	65.79	64.25	65.34	64.75	1.49	1.04
MIR	35.45	35.97	35.38	35.69	34.61	0.52	0.24
MLS	26.31	26.61	26.05	26.35	26.30	0.30	0.04
MRVC	4.20	4.39	4.18	4.28	4.19	0.19	0.08
NKE	105.20	105.78	104.95	105.38	100.25	0.58	0.18
NOC	74.60	74.96	73.84	74.48	73.57	0.36	-0.12
NT	30.18	30.60	29.94	30.50	29.32	0.42	0.32
NTY	50.90	51.76	50.59	51.20	52.32	0.86	0.30
NUAN	14.25	14.46	14.08	14.40	12.72	0.21	0.15
NYT	25.55	25.97	25.38	25.75	25.69	0.42	0.20
PCAR	70.00	72.36	69.85	72.36	69.72	2.36	2.36
PLCM	33.73	34.19	33.70	34.07	32.43	0.46	0.34
RHT	24.29	25.00	24.02	24.23	24.47	0.71	-0.06
RTN	55.48	55.48	54.95	54.96	53.22	0.00	-0.52
SCUR	8.80	9.14	8.80	9.05	8.84	0.34	0.25
SNV	32.72	33.02	32.63	32.93	32.10	0.30	0.21
SPG	116.60	118.72	115.65	117.73	121.24	2.12	1.13
TGT	62.10	62.60	61.90	62.44	59.88	0.50	0.34
TRN	40.30	41.82	40.25	41.60	39.83	1.52	1.30
TSN	18.75	18.80	18.47	18.62	18.67	0.05	-0.13
UBS	62.57	63.35	62.47	63.31	63.33	0.78	0.74
UIS	9.25	9.28	9.15	9.21	9.22	0.03	-0.04
URI	28.48	28.80	28.35	28.74	28.25	0.32	0.26
VNO	133.90	135.06	132.64	133.91	132.85	1.16	0.01
WLP	80.69	81.29	80.27	80.98	79.00	0.60	0.29
XL	73.00	73.44	72.75	73.10	71.56	0.44	0.10
XLI	36.34	36.78	36.26	36.73	35.96	0.44	0.39
XLY	39.65	39.87	39.58	39.82	39.72	0.22	0.17
YHOO	29.69	30.86	29.64	30.66	29.88	1.17	0.97
ZMH	84.09	84.96	83.92	84.62	85.00	0.87	0.53
	3775.55					59.88	38.89

Start: 2007-01-13
High: 2007-02-08
EOD: 2007-02-13

Symbol	Open	High	Low	Close	Stop	O->H	O->C
AFFX	27.33	27.66	27.11	27.40	27.83	0.33	0.07
ALVR	8.31	8.39	8.25	8.32	7.77	0.08	0.01
AMX	47.83	48.67	47.79	48.50	45.76	0.84	0.67
ANAD	12.12	12.13	11.91	12.10	11.40	0.01	-0.02
ANF	81.52	82.51	81.06	82.27	82.81	0.99	0.75
APCC	30.94	31.00	30.93	30.98	30.85	0.06	0.04
ARO	38.21	38.51	37.81	38.40	37.06	0.30	0.19
BEN	123.16	126.00	122.95	125.59	121.77	2.84	2.43
BG	80.15	80.55	79.86	79.92	79.85	0.40	-0.23
BGC	50.36	51.49	50.10	50.68	48.38	1.13	0.32
BIG	26.49	26.58	26.29	26.41	26.34	0.09	-0.08
CBS	31.98	32.27	31.95	31.99	31.91	0.29	0.01
CHINA	10.59	10.88	10.58	10.85	10.63	0.29	0.26
COH	48.25	49.58	47.81	49.38	47.03	1.33	1.13
CVG	26.34	26.60	26.26	26.55	26.50	0.26	0.21
DIS	34.58	34.82	34.52	34.75	34.44	0.24	0.17
DLTR	33.34	34.03	33.11	34.00	32.53	0.69	0.66
EDS	28.30	28.77	28.22	28.65	27.62	0.47	0.35
EMC	14.56	14.77	14.40	14.70	14.38	0.21	0.14
EXC	63.63	64.04	63.50	63.78	62.72	0.41	0.15
EXPE	21.68	22.49	21.64	22.27	21.65	0.81	0.59
FMCN	80.32	81.75	79.30	79.62	85.84	1.43	-0.70
GGP	63.59	65.20	63.10	64.72	65.07	1.61	1.13
GT	24.74	25.00	24.38	24.85	25.33	0.26	0.11
HAS	28.50	29.00	28.45	28.98	28.94	0.50	0.48
HCP	40.25	40.33	39.68	39.83	39.60	0.08	-0.42
HTZ	20.40	21.32	20.28	21.22	19.95	0.92	0.82
IACI	39.90	40.15	39.63	39.85	39.48	0.25	-0.05
IBN	42.24	43.67	42.00	43.61	45.89	1.43	1.37
IFX	15.98	16.24	15.95	16.18	15.68	0.26	0.20
IP	37.00	37.49	36.91	37.33	36.93	0.49	0.33
ITW	52.05	52.93	52.02	52.77	50.29	0.88	0.72
MA	104.21	108.82	104.10	108.02	113.08	4.61	3.81
MCO	71.10	72.18	71.07	71.68	74.82	1.08	0.58
MET	64.30	65.79	64.25	65.34	64.75	1.49	1.04
MNST	53.31	53.92	53.00	53.63	51.39	0.61	0.32
MRVC	4.20	4.39	4.18	4.28	4.19	0.19	0.08
NKE	105.20	105.78	104.95	105.38	100.25	0.58	0.18
NOC	74.60	74.96	73.84	74.48	73.57	0.36	-0.12
NT	30.18	30.60	29.94	30.50	29.32	0.42	0.32
NUAN	14.25	14.46	14.08	14.40	12.72	0.21	0.15
PRU	91.73	92.75	91.50	92.55	91.26	1.02	0.82
RHT	24.29	25.00	24.02	24.23	24.47	0.71	-0.06
RMBS	21.90	22.17	21.83	22.00	21.49	0.27	0.10
SONS	7.34	7.62	7.34	7.48	7.80	0.28	0.14
TGT	62.10	62.60	61.90	62.44	59.88	0.50	0.34
TIF	41.75	42.45	41.56	42.07	40.50	0.70	0.32
TROW	48.97	49.78	48.87	49.60	48.94	0.81	0.63
UBS	62.57	63.35	62.47	63.31	63.33	0.78	0.74
UIS	9.25	9.28	9.15	9.21	9.22	0.03	-0.04
URI	28.48	28.80	28.35	28.74	28.25	0.32	0.26
VNO	133.90	135.06	132.64	133.91	132.85	1.16	0.01
WLP	80.69	81.29	80.27	80.98	79.00	0.60	0.29
WYN	34.81	35.05	34.61	34.85	32.65	0.24	0.04
XEL	24.25	24.53	24.20	24.30	24.14	0.28	0.05
XL	73.00	73.44	72.75	73.10	71.56	0.44	0.10
YHOO	29.69	30.86	29.64	30.66	29.88	1.17	0.97
ZMH	84.09	84.96	83.92	84.62	85.00	0.87	0.53
	2664.80					39.91	23.41

[/Trading/Darvas/D200702] permanent link

Monitoring Server: DNS with BIND

When doing diagnostics with network devices and their interfaces, it is helpful to have forward and reverse lookups on a number of ip addresses. These lookups can be implemented within Active Directory or under a separate DNS server. Use the following instructions if you wish to use a separate dns server, based upon Bind. You'll need to choose a different domain or a delegated domain than what is used in Active Directory or your other primary DNS server.

Installation

Install bind:

• apt-get install bind9

The service starts upon installation.

Choose a domain for the network devices. For example, if your regular network domain is 'example.com', use something like 'netdevices.example.com'. You'll need to make a number of changes to files in the /etc/bind directory.

Create a file called 'db.netdevices.example.com'. It's content should look similar to:

;
; BIND data file for network devices
;
$TTL    604800
@       IN      SOA     netdevices.example.com root.localhost. (
                        2006051501      ; Serial               
                         604800         ; Refresh
                          86400         ; Retry
                        2419200         ; Expire
                         604800 )       ; Negative Cache TTL
;
@       IN      NS      localhost.
@       IN      A       127.0.0.1

device01  IN      A       10.1.6.30     ;device 01 on network

Edit 'named.conf.local'. Uncomment the line which includes 'zones.rfc1918'. Add a reference to the zone file you just created. You should have something that looks like:

include "/etc/bind/zones.rfc1918";

zone "netdevices.example.com" {
        type master;
        file "/etc/bind/db.netdevices.example.com";
};

Update the forwarders entry in 'named.conf.options'. This should be your Active Directory or similar servers. On those servers, you should delegate the netdevices.example.com domain to this server.

options {
        directory "/var/cache/bind";

        forwarders {
                10.1.1.154;
                10.1.1.159;
        };

        auth-nxdomain no;    # conform to RFC1035
};

Depending upon the ip blocks in which your devices reside, you'll need to create some reverse lookup files. For example, create a file called 'db.6.1.10.in-addr.arpa' to hold the reverse lookups for rfc1918 ip addresses.

; BIND reverse data file for local loopback interface
;
$TTL    604800
@       IN      SOA     localhost. root.localhost. (
                        2006060901      ; Serial
                         604800         ; Refresh
                          86400         ; Retry
                        2419200         ; Expire
                         604800 )       ; Negative Cache TTL
;
@       IN      NS      localhost.

30 IN      PTR     device01

Now edit zones.rfc1918 and add a zone line so it uses your new file. For example, our change should show as:

zone "6.1.10.in-addr.arpa"      { type master; file "/etc/bind/db.6.1.10.in-addr.arpa"; };

Restart the service. Check /var/log/syslog to be sure things started properly with no errors.

/etc/init.d/bind9 restart

Edit /etc/resolv.conf so you have the following. If you are running dhcp, this may not work properly as the file may get over-written.

search netdevices.example.com example.com
nameserver 10.1.1.154
nameserver 10.1.1.159

Active Directory Changes

You need to configure forward and reverse delegations in Active Directory DNS to allow the monitoring server to resolve the monitoring subnet.

To provide forward delegation:

• Look in the Forward Lookup Zones and select the internal domain
• Right click and select New Delegation
• In 'Delegated Domain', put 'netdevices'
• Add the fully qualified domain name, 'server.netdevices.example.com', and it's ip address
• finish to apply the change

To provide reverse delegation (assuming that a complete subnet has been assigned to the network monitoring server):

• Look in Reverse Lookup Zones
• Add a new Active Directory integrated zone
• Put in the first octet ONLY of the network id (for example 10)
• Finish
• Right click on the new reverse zone (such as 10.in-addr.arpa) and create a new Domain
• If the second octet of the domain is '1', use 1 as the domain id and Finish
• Right click on the new domain and add a new delegation
• If the third octet is 6, put 6 in as the delegated domain
• For the server name, put in the fully qualified domain name and ip address of the monitoring server running Bind
• Finish

To test, on the active directory server, start nslookup. Put in the fully qualified domain name of the bind server to see if resolves. Put in the ip address of the bind server to see if it resolves.

[/OpenSource/Debian/Monitoring] permanent link

Aptitude vs apt-get vs dselect

I have tried to use dselect on occasion. I thought it was just me who couldn't figure out how to deal with it. I guess that is a common ailment around users. I see now on an old debian-users mail list, dselect is really not recommended for much of anything.

As such, I have been using the likes of apt-get, apt-key, and apt-file for my package management. Today, I see that even apt-get is old and gray. The new kid on the block is 'aptitude' for Debian package management. From a message by Joey Hess on a another Debian User List entry, I reprint the following reasons for using Aptitude:

Seven reasons why you should be using aptitude instead of apt-get.

1. aptitude can look just like apt-get

   If you run 'aptitude update' or 'aptitude upgrade' or 'aptitude
   install', it looks and works just like apt-get, with a few enhancements.
   So there is no learning curve.

2. aptitude sanely handles recommends

   A long-standing failure of apt-get has been its lack of support for
   the Recommends relationship. Which is a problem because many packages
   in Debian rely on Recommends to pull in software that the average user
   generally uses with the package. This is a not uncommon cause of
   trouble, even though apt-get recently became able to at least mention
   recommended packages, it's easy to miss its warnings.

   Aptitude supports Recommends by default, and can be confgigured to
   support Suggests too. It even supports installing recommended packages
   when used in command-line mode.

3. aptitude tracks automatically installed packages

   Stop worrying about pruning unused libraries and support packages from
   your system. If you use aptitude to install everything, it will keep
   track of what packages are pulled in by dependencies alone, and remove
   those packages when they are no longer needed.

4. use aptitude as a normal user and avoid hosing your system

   Maybe you didn't know that you can run aptitude in gui mode as a regular
   user. Make any changes you'd like to try out. If you get into a real
   mess, you can hit 'q' and exit, your changes will not be saved.
   (aptitude also lets you use ctrl-u to undo changes). Since it's running
   as a normal user, you cannot hose your system until you tell aptitude to
   do something, at which point it will prompt you for your root password.

5. aptitude has a powerful UI and searching capabilities

   Between aptitude's categorical browser and its great support for
   mutt-style filtering and searching of packages by name, description,
   maintainer, dependencies, etc, you should be able to find packages
   faster than ever before using aptitude.

6. aptitude makes it easy to keep track of obsolete software

   If Debian stops distributing a package, apt will leave it on your system
   indefinitly, with no warnings, and no upgrades. Aptitude lists such
   packages in its "Obsolete and Locally Created Packages" section, so you
   can be informed of the problem and do something about it.

7. aptitude has an interface to the Debian task system

   Aptitude lets you use Debian's task system as it was designed to be
   used. You can browse the available tasks, select a task for install, and
   then dig into it and de-select parts of the task that you don't want.
   apt-get has no support for tasks, and aptitude is better even than
   special purpose tools like tasksel.

Makes sense to me. I'll give it a try.

[/OpenSource/Debian] permanent link

Tag Line, by Tom Robbins

Using words to describe magic is like using a screwdriver to cut roast beef.
-- Tom Robbins

[/Personal/TagLines] permanent link

Hints for Debian apt-get and Expired Public Keys

When running 'apt-get update', I encountered time out issues and this error:

W: GPG error: http://security.debian.org testing/updates Release: The following signatures couldn't be verified because the public key is not available: NO_PUBKEY A70DAF536070D3A1

A search came up with a solution at FreeSpamFilter.org Forum Site. The site recommended the following commands (where the key is the one from the above error message):

gpg --keyserver subkeys.pgp.net --recv-keys A70DAF536070D3A1
gpg --export A70DAF536070D3A1 | apt-key add -

Before running 'apt-get update' again, based upon comments from Ubuntu Forums, I also ran the following two commands:

apt-get clean
apt-get check

The update process now runs cleanly.

[/OpenSource/Debian] permanent link